Thursday, January 3, 2008

Obama, Huckabee

Young Turks are calling it for Obama by 6 points, Huckabee riding on top of the GOP by nearly double that.

It developed strangely. With 23% reporting, the Dem's were nearly tied at 32.9 (Edwards), and 32.3 (Clinton, Obama). As larger precinct numbers came in Obama's numbers stretched into what (by caucus standards) is a very firm win.

With 84% of the final reports in, Clinton and Edwards are still tied for second in what Newsweeks Richard Wolffe is calling "the race to avoid third [place]."

What is most interesting about Iowa is the breakdown of the Republican candidates. With 65% reporting, Huckabee is way out in the lead. Arguably, Huckabee has knocked Romney down a few pegs while McCain, despite fourth place in Iowa, continues to rise overall. McCain could be on his way to a dream competition, with Romney and Giuliani fading, where he simply waits out Huckabee's surge, and sidles comfortably into the nomination.

On Air America, Matt Stoller is warning us that the Dem candidates are still running media campaigns more than principled, and could still betray the progressive movement.

Caucuses are fun.

UPDATE: 56% on the Democratic side were first time caucus goers.

1 comment:

  1. I hope you're right about McCain. If Republicans nominate a candidate in the mold of GWB (Huckabee) in this election, they can hand the White House to the Dems. This is a change election and Huckabee is the most unelectable in the general election.

    Ron Paul is becoming more and more appealing. I have a feeling I'll be one of those nutjobs that votes for him in November.