Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Nader Again, Or Just A Bad Poll?

I don't think he'll be in the spoiling role again, but someone's polls disagree with me.

CNN / TIME / ORC
9/14-16/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Florida (907 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 48, Obama 48
Obama 48, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 1, McKinney 1

Indiana (890 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 51, Obama 45
McCain 48, Obama 43, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 1

North Carolina (910 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 48, Obama 47
MCain 46, Obama 45, Nader 2, Barr 2, McKinney 1

Ohio (913 RV, 3%)
Obama 49, McCain 47
(9/2: Obama 47, McCain 45)
Obama 46, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 0
(9/2: Obama 45, McCain 44, Nader 5, Barr 2, McKinney 1)

Wisconsin (950 RV, 3%)
Obama 50, McCain 47
Obama 49, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 0
Now as much as I want to believe these results (I mean come on, Florida tied, Obama up in Ohio!!!) the fact that Nader is doubling up his previous high in each of these states makes me a little skeptical of this particular poll. But then again, maybe there's something happening in camp Nader that I'm not aware of. A recent google news search comes up with:
Granted these are all telling the same story, but can a guy talking to a bird give him a 4 point bump in a handful of swing states? If so, someone should tell Obama and McCain.

1 comment:

  1. I think it's interesting that throwing the "third party" candidates into the mix is seeming to help Obama. (They drop McCain more than they drop Obama.)

    And, as we get closer to election day, it's more and more important to include the also-rans in the poll, since that is what voters will be seeing on election day anyway.

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