Thursday, July 23, 2009

Well, Mr. Blue Dog, You Have a Problem On Your Hands

If we accept the Blue Dog memo on health care (which we shouldn't) then we've got bigger problems than this single health care vote.

[...] there's not really any evidence that health care reform is unpopular in the Blue Dog districts. Although there are exceptions, most of the Blue Dog districts are fairly poor. A Quinnipiac poll released earlier this month suggested that while 53 percent of voters overall think "think it's the government's responsibility to make sure that everyone in the United States has adequate health care", 61 percent of voters making under $50,000 do. Also, while Quinnipaic did not break out the results for moderate and conservative Democrats, which are plentiful in these Districts, one can reasonably infer them. In this poll, 79 percent of liberals agreed with the statement as did 77 percent of Democrats -- not a very big difference. Since almost all liberals are Democrats and about half of all Democrats are liberals, that suggests that support for health care reform among non-liberal Democrats is something like 75 percent.

But suppose that Barone is right, and that health care -- or at least the current Democratic version of it -- indeed is unpopular in these districts.

Well, then, Mr. Blue Dog, you have a problem on your hands.

You're going to lose anyway.

If these voters are not capable of supporting health care, what other planks of the Democratic agenda are they going to support?

1 comment:

  1. Defeat for health care reform would translate into defeat for the Obama administration and Democrats generally.

    Which means the Blue Dogs go down in the next election, since they are the most vulnerable Democrats. It happened in the 1994 election after Democrats failed to enact President Clinton's health care plan.

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