Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Turnout will Decide 2010

Much of the discussion over the Democratic win in NY-23 and the GOP taking the NJ and VA governors races has centered around Barack Obama, and a "repudiation" or "endorsement" of his policies. If anything, the turnout of all three big attention getting races tells us that Barack Obama's 2008 popularity isn't enough for a Democrat to run on in 2009. Not exactly earth shattering news there. In fact, Democrats finished with a win over the trumped up "TEA party" candidate in NY-23, and a net gain in the House. Hard to spin that as a growing "anti-Obama" national sentiment, thought Michael Steele really really really hopes you won't notice that.

But there is an underlying message here for Democrats much more worth the scrutiny. DS:

[...] there is no denying the McDonnell and Christie victories will hurt with redistricting, and of course, the msm will give them 90 percent of the ink and air time. Although niether win was a referendum on President Obama, they do indicate that his coattails have frayed away with time. More to the point, Democrats have a lot of work to do in figuring out how to mobilize turnout in off-year elections -- and wherever they don't have a charismatic candidate leading the charge.
GOTV will be the most important factor for the Democratic Party on a national level. It won't be the TEA parties, or Dick Army. It won't be conservatives running right of conservatives that tips the balance of power in the House. A continued Democratic majority will depend almost entirely on our own ability to get our own out to the polls.

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