Friday, May 28, 2010

2010 Midterms: Moderates, Angry Tea-Baggers, Fringe Republicans, and Comfy Democrats (GOTV)

Public Policy Polling:

I think we may have all (myself included) made too much of the impending doom the Massachusetts results portended for Democrats this year. The combination of an exceptionally strong Republican candidate in Brown and an exceptionally weak Democratic candidate in Coakley created a formula that made it possible for the GOP to win moderate voters. But the Republicans haven't shown the ability to replicate that formula in any other key Senate contest yet, and as a result Democrats are decidedly winning the center.

Here's our Senate data on moderates:

-Jack Conway leads Rand Paul 60-20
-Robin Carnahan leads Roy Blunt 61-21
-Elaine Marshall leads Richard Burr 59-24, Cal Cunningham leads Burr 54-26
-Michael Bennet leads Jane Norton 54-31
-Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman 47-27
-Joe Sestak leads Pat Toomey 45-29
-Alexi Giannoulias leads Mark Kirk 36-23
-Harry Reid leads Sue Lowden 51-41
-Blanche Lincoln leads John Boozman 49-40, Bill Halter leads Boozman 45-36
-Paul Hodes leads Kelly Ayotte 47-39
-Charlie Crist has 34% to 32% for Kendrick Meek and 19% for Marco Rubio
Barring scandalous meltdowns or alien invasion, I wouldn't expect this picture to change much.  What that means is that despite the right-wing hoopla (Seriously, GOPers... everything can't be "Obama's Waterloo/Katrina/Shoe-Projectile" moment... voters are smarter than you seem to think, and it makes you look desperate, which is just embarrassing for both of us) Democrats are positioned well.  Also, the majority party controls much of the message in a midterm, and when it comes to issues, the GOP isn't exactly poised to gain ground with "Get the Mexicans Out!" and "Repeal Everything!"  The biggest threat to Democrats retaining a majority?  Democrats, mostly satisfied, sitting home on election day.  Republicans are angry and tea-baggy.  Democratic voters are more likely to feel things are "going okay," and thus less likely to make a trip to the ballot box.  But back to that Republicans feeling tea-baggy thing... well that's all the reason Democrats should need to show up.  We just need to remind them.

OFA has a plan.
The weekend of June 5th, we're holding Vote 2010 Kickoff Canvasses across the country, where OFA volunteers will get together to go door-to-door in their communities, all with the goal of engaging first-time 2008 voters and getting them to commit to get back to the polls this fall.

And to make it happen, we need volunteers to host events. All you need is a place where folks can gather to get started—it could be your living room, a nearby community center, or a park—and we'll provide you with materials and instructions to go from there.
Here in Utah, this little tool could prove useful.  Nationally, though, getting 2008 voters fired up to hit the polls again is going to be a bigger challenge than anything the GOP will send up.  You can do something about it.


  1. But what if she barters chicken for votes?

  2. In Weber County we're organizing county wide. Details at Come join us for the 2010 kickoff!