The demographics and population centers of our state, though, will be very different. Growth is the opportunity Utah Democrats have needed, but it won't come as a given. What is happening to the GOP nationally is already seeping into Utah. The 2021 "extraordinary session" for the panicked racists is the starkest example of the nationalization of our legislature, but there are others. And there will be more. As population centers change in Utah, the pressures that drive their party, nationally, to embrace anti-democratic policies, reversion fantasies and extremism will increase here. 

Utah County change in Republican margin: down nearly 40%; Cache Co: down 31%; Wash. Co: down 16%. Party solution here = dig in harder, get crazier, don’t let these ‘outsiders’ stain our purity. Dumb. Gonna wake up in less than ten years without any ‘R’ representing Utah. https://t.co/FHi87gd9hy

— Matt Waldrip (@mattwaldrip) March 31, 2022

In the next decade, expect more erosion of legislative norms like HB11 and the 2021 "extraordinary session." Expect extreme measures not dying in committees and more often even surviving floor votes. Expect more attacks on voting and ballot initiatives and consolidating of power, as slogans become less a sure thing in areas outside of Salt Lake City. It might not be as ugly as RNC messaging looks today (there is a little bit of truth to that Utah Way cliche, and the Trump fever is fading) but when Utah Republicans have to start campaigning harder in Weber, Cache, and even Davis counties, there will be tantrums. They'll feed the monster at convention, and find it harder in more districts to run away from that extremism in primaries and generals. Not impossible, just harder. And faced with a choice of adapting or attacking the system... well... 

Utah Republicans have had it relatively easy for decades, and there's a long and ironic historical record of conservatives turning to the "strongman" when the "invisible hand" slaps back.  

Democrats face their own version of this. The now generational tension between left and center inside the Utah Democratic Party is real and, I've always thought, healthy. But it also distracts from the real challenge for the party in being positioned to grow as the state grows. It leaves a vacuum that a lot of voters fill on behalf of the Utah GOP with the slightest of urging. 

Anyone who follows the legislature closely or has organized with campaigns can tell you what some of the brightest defacto spox of the Utah Democratic Party are about. Former representative Patrice Arent was brilliant. Rep. Brian King eloquent. Senators Kitchen and Riebe and Escamilla have been very effective putting words to opposition to some of the worst majority decisions. Rep. Suzanne Harrison has inadvertently taught a master class on how to speak to and engage with the public as a Democrat in Utah. The one or two times I've heard Rep. Sandra Hollins speak passionately for or against a bill have convinced me she could win any race she entered. Every Democrat in the legislature except Davis gets it and is good at it. Whatever it is. And their votes on education --always a top issue for all voters in surveys-- match more closely where what little polling we see says the majority of voters are.

But if Dan Jones ran a poll of registered voters who aren't legislative junkies, could they say what the Utah Democratic Party is all about? Even lifelong organizer Democrats in my circles can't answer that one definitively. Voters, R and D and I, fill that "brand" vacuum for the state party based on their understanding of the party nationally, or what they hear from Republicans. Simple marketing processes. Utah Democrats are Pepsi. It's available in more restaurants and producing some very popular products. But Coke owns Christmas because of the can colors and a song in holiday ads, and that wins.

It's not a new challenge for the state party, but it's one that's going to matter more and more over the next decade. Pockets of change are going to present an opportunity and, to be blunt, the party needs to get it's shit together to pounce on it when the window opens. 

Back when I was more involved with party leadership, more than one person got frustrated with me. I was told often I was very good at diagnosing problems, rarely offered solutions. In my defense, that's basically what I do for a living. I'm not sure what the solution here is. It probably involves more young people driving the message. A more diverse central committee. Pouring everything, literally, into beating a few high profile Republicans outside of Salt Lake County. Unseating a legislative leader after a particularly odious and unpopular vote would generate a lot of brand building headlines. 

I'm spit-balling. I'm not a political or executive director, for reasons. There are much more experienced organizers and community leaders with ideas on the challenge I'm trying to define here. What I do know is Utah ten years from now is going to be very different from today both demographically and in where those "blue pockets" are. 

The Utah Democratic Party needs to be gearing up for that now. The 29th annual Eleanor Roosevelt Luncheon and PolitiSauce raise decent money from the rank and file but there were 11 people at a county convention in Northern Utah and that seems bad.